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Monday 27 May 2013

Grain: World Markets and Trade

Exportable Supplies of Corn, Wheat, and Rice Expand With 
Record Global Production

Record global corn production in 2013/14 is, expected to pressure prices substantially., Consequently, feed use is forecast to climb, sharply., Global corn production isforecast up 109 million, tons (13 percent) on the basis of record crops in, the United States, Argentina, China, and Ukraine., Record global corn consumption is driven, primarily by the United States and China, where, feed demand remainsstrong., With prospects for a record U.S. crop, global, corn stocks are currently expected to be, replenished to the highest level in over a decade., For wheat, record production and ample, exportable supplies in the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine are partially offset by a, smaller U.S. wheat crop. High early-season, prices are expected to stimulate additional, plantings in Argentina, Australia, and Canada., Global consumption is also expected to rise as a, result of increased animal feeding and population, growth. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise, slightly., Record rice production, coupled with abundant, and growing stocks, is expected to pressure, prices downward. Consumption is also at a, record level, with continued growth in China and, India. Government policies, especially in, Thailand, will continue to impact global market, dynamics.
WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2013/14


Global wheat production is projected to reach a, record 701 million tons, up 47 million from 2012/13., Production in the Black Sea region is expected to, increase in comparison to last year’s droughtimpacted crop. Production in the Middle East and, North Africa is also estimated at higher levels than, last year. On the other hand, the U.S. crop is, projected nearly 6 million tons lower. Global, consumption is forecast 20 million tons higher to, 695 million tons as a result of population growth, increased per capita consumption, and higher animal, feeding. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise 6, million tons to 186 million; stocks in the United, States are expected to drop, whereas most other, exporter stocks (except India) are expected to grow, slightly. The season-average farm price is down, $1.00/bushel from last year’s record to $6.80/bushel. 


Pankaj Katba
Feed Grain Agri Brokers  
CORN OVERVIEW FOR 2013/14

Global coarse grain production is forecast to soar 125 million tons, led by a record U.S. corn 
crop. South America, although down, is still expected to have near-record production. With 
global coarse grain consumption forecast to climb by over 80 million tons (about half of this is
corn for feed), stocks would grow by over 30 million tons, ending a 3-year slide.
Higher coarse grain exports come principally from Black Sea countries as the United States
gains--and South America loses--about 15 million tons of trade. China leads the growth in 
imports, primarily as lower world prices increase corn trade. United States and EU imports are 
sharply lower on improved domestic production prospects. 
Global corn production is forecast at a record 966 million tons, up nearly 110 million with 
recovery expected in the United States following last year’s drought-decimated crop. Global 
consumption is projected to climb almost 75 million tons to a record 937 million. While the 
boost in global production is largely in the United States, growth in consumption is split 
between U.S. and foreign markets, particularly China. Corn used for ethanol in the United 
Statesis up from last year, although forecast lower than the peak seen 2 years ago. 
World corn imports are expected to be stronger with most of the additional demand coming from
China; demand in the United States and EU will be sharply lower because of larger crops. 
World barley production is forecast to recover to the highest level in 4 years. Trade is forecast 
slightly lower because of greater availability of other feed grains. Australia is expected to return 
as the largest barley exporter. Argentine exports are forecast down for the first time in 4 years as 
farmers reportedly shift back to wheat. EU exports are also lower as competition intensifies with
Australia and Russia and as import demand from the Middle East and North Africa declines
slightly. 

CORN OVERVIEW FOR 2012/13 

Selected Exporters
• U.S. corn is cut 2.5 million tons to 19.5 million on continued sluggish sales and 
shipments.
• Argentine corn is raised 2.0 million tons to 22.0 million on a strong pace of shipments

Selected Exporters
• U.S. corn is cut 2.5 million tons to 19.5 million on continued sluggish sales and 
shipments.
• Argentine corn is raised 2.0 million tons to 22.0 million on a strong pace of shipments. 
May 2013 
PRICES:

U.S. corn quotes have moved up $15 to $297/ton since the release of the April WASDE report as 
weather has delayed plantings throughout much of the U.S. Corn Belt. Argentine prices are also 
up, but continue at a substantial ($45/ton) discount to U.S. corn. Ukrainian prices have risen $10 
to $275/ton. 


Thanks & Best Regards
Pankaj Katba
Feed Grain Agri Brokers  
(International Broker for Grains, Pulses, Rice, Oil seeds, Oils, Extractions / Feed Mill Ingredients,  Sugar, Cattle Feeds & Cotton)
905, Star Plaza,  Phulchhab Chowk , Rajkot 360 001 Gujarat – INDIA
Tel       : +91 -281- 3065002 Fax: +91 -281- 3065002
Cell No : +91-88-6666-3400, +91-98246 -01900, +91 99251-77699
E-mail  :  Pankaj@FeedGrainAgri.com  & FeedGrainAgri@Gmail.com
MSN    :  FeedGrain@Hotmail.com
Skype  :  FeedGrainAgri BBM PIN:26DD706F What's up: +918866663400
Web     :  www.FeedGrainAgri.com
Soybean quantity is much greater than last year. - Feed Grain Agri Brokers 


  • Brazilian soybean crop is late. Both on the planting side and harvesting side, therefore soybean exports will run beyond their normal time frame.
  • Soybean quantity is much greater than last year. Meaning, they have more soybeans to export this year compared to last. This will also extend the overall length of their soy export program.
  • Traditional soy export season extended three to four months. Exports traditionally ending in early September will more than likely extend thru late November or early December.
  • U.S. exporters concerned. With Brazilian exports extending well beyond their  traditional time frame and Brazil's 2014 soybean crop set to come out of the ground just a few weeks later, the U.S. export window is shrinking.
  • Logistical infrastructure in Brazil limits exports. Because of limitations, both soybeans and corn can not be exported in large doses at the same time. Therefore the trade is curious in regards to just how much of either will be available to U.S. importers.
  • Second-crop corn in Brazil will start to be harvested next month. But with so many soybeans to export, the trade is starting to think Brazil's corn exports could be pushed to the back burner.
  • Corn exports in Brazil pushed back well into the early part of 2014. To what degree and magnitude remains the question. Traditionally corn exports out of Brazil would pickup as soybean exports wind down. This year that won't happen until late in 2013, hence corn exports will be extended.





Thanks & Best Regards
Pankaj Katba
Feed Grain Agri Brokers  
(International Broker for Grains, Pulses, Rice, Oil seeds, Oils, Extractions / Feed Mill Ingredients,  Sugar, Cattle Feeds & Cotton)
905, Star Plaza,  Phulchhab Chowk , Rajkot 360 001 Gujarat – INDIA
Tel       : +91 -281- 3065002 Fax: +91 -281- 3065002
Cell No : +91-88-6666-3400, +91-98246 -01900, +91 99251-77699
E-mail  :  Pankaj@FeedGrainAgri.com  & FeedGrainAgri@Gmail.com
MSN    :  FeedGrain@Hotmail.com
Skype  :  FeedGrainAgri BBM PIN:26DD706F What's up: +918866663400
Web     :  www.FeedGrainAgri.com

Saturday 11 May 2013


Indian corn seen up on value buying

Corn futures in India are expected to trade higher next week on some value buying supported by lower-than-expected supplies from the state of Bihar, while a slow pace of sowing in the United States is also seen aiding sentiment.


Supplies from the new season winter-sown crop in Bihar have been lower than expected due to unfavourable weather, traders said.
Maize is cultivated twice a year, during summer and winter, in Asia's largest exporter of the grain, with a major contribution coming from the summer crop.
"Prices are expected to pick up as they are at a comfortable level now. Demand from the poultry and starch industry should improve prices," said Kanhaiyala Agarwal, an exporter and trader based in Bangalore.
The key June contract for maize rabi rose 0.87 percent to close at 1,157 rupees ($5.47 per bushel) per 100 kg on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). It has fallen more than 7 percent since the close on March 23.
Demand for poultry products drops in the summer as people eat less fatty foods due to high temperatures.
India's corn output is expected to be 21.82 million tonnes in 2012/13 as per the farm ministry's third advance estimate as against 21.76 million tonnes a year earlier.
Agarwal expects corn prices to rise by 50 rupees per 100 kg in the short term.
In Chicago, the key July corn contract on CBOT was down 0.5 percent at $6.45-1/2 per bushel at 1319 GMT.
Chicago corn futures edged lower, following solid gains in the previous session as the market awaited a U.S. government report on farm demand and supply later on Friday.
Drier weather by the weekend into early next week will boost U.S. corn plantings that have fallen to the slowest pace in nearly three decades, an agricultural meteorologist said on Friday.
KAPASKHALI
Indian cottonseed oilcake, or kapaskhali, futures are likely to trade up next week on a pickup in spot demand from local feed makers.
Kapaskhali is a by-product of cottonseed and is used as cattle feed, mostly for dairy animals, in northern India.
"Demand from local feed makers is improving and this is likely to support cottonseed oilcake prices. Supplies have also come down in the local market," said Ambika T.B, an analyst from Karvy Comtrade.
The key June contract on the NCDEX closed 0.56 percent higher at 1,431 rupees per 100 kg. ($1 = 54.2300 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Meenakshi Sharma; Editing by Prateek Chatterjee)

Thanks & Best Regards
Pankaj Katba
Feed Grain Agri Brokers  
(International Broker for Grains, Pulses, Rice, Oil seeds, Oils, Extractions / Feed Mill Ingredients,  Sugar, Cattle Feeds & Cotton)
905, Star Plaza,  Phulchhab Chowk , Rajkot 360 001 Gujarat – INDIA
Tel       : +91 -281- 3065002 Fax: +91 -281- 3065002
Cell No : +91-88-6666-3400, +91-98246 -01900, +91 99251-77699
E-mail  :  Pankaj@FeedGrainAgri.com  & FeedGrainAgri@Gmail.com
MSN    :  FeedGrain@Hotmail.com
Skype  :  FeedGrainAgri BBM PIN:26DD706F What's up: +918866663400
Web     :  www.FeedGrainAgri.com